The largest sector of the fine art market in 2023
Considering the art market 2023, it’s paramount to delve into the nuances of its performance, particularly focusing on the Post-War and Contemporary art segments. These two categories have historically represented the largest fine art auction market sector. In 2023, they comprised 53% of the global sales value, marginally down from 2022 by 1% and 55% by volume, experiencing a 3% decrease.
The total sales within this sector amounted to $6.5 billion, marking a 16% reduction from the previous year and continuing a downward trend from the 2021 peak of $7.8 billion. Interestingly, the number of lots sold also saw a slight decrease of 3% year-on-year. This decline signifies a return to the sales level observed a decade ago in 2013, after a period of significant growth over 20 years.
Market dynamics and geographical insights
Post-War and Contemporary art sales have witnessed considerable fluctuations over the years. Following a swift rebound from the 2009 global financial crisis, the sector achieved a record high in 2014, with sales reaching $7.9 billion. However, the subsequent years brought mixed outcomes, with a notable downturn beginning in 2019, exacerbated by a diminished supply of artworks priced above $10 million—a critical segment for dictating market trends. The pandemic further impacted sales, which fell by 18% in value in 2020. Yet, an unprecedented surge occurred in 2021, with sales soaring to a new high of $8.5 billion, a more than 60% increase year-on-year. Despite this remarkable recovery, the following two years saw a regression in sales values, with 2023 figures not only falling 24% short of the 2021 peak but also slightly below the levels of a decade prior.
Source: Arts Economics (2024) with data from Artory
The United States, China, and the United Kingdom collectively accounted for 84% of the sector’s total sales by value in 2023, maintaining consistency with the previous year. Moreover, these regions were responsible for 43% of the lots sold, marking a 6% increase from 2022. The US continued to dominate as the largest market, claiming 47% of sales by value, albeit slightly decreasing from the preceding year. Notably, while the US led in the older Post-War segment, China had a more significant share in Contemporary art sales, thanks in part to the sale of highly-priced works by younger Chinese artists within the country.
Recovery and Challenges
Following a significant contraction during the pandemic, the US market for Post-War and Contemporary art demonstrated remarkable resilience, doubling in size in 2021 and reaching a historic peak of $3.8 billion in 2022. Nevertheless, 2023 witnessed a substantial reversal, with sales declining by 19% to $3.1 billion. This downturn was attributed mainly to a decrease in multimillion-dollar works sold at auctions in New York.
Source: Arts Economics (2024) with data from Artory
Despite this setback, the sales level remained 19% higher than the pre-pandemic figures of 2019, which stood at $2.6 billion. Among the noteworthy sales in the US were Jean-Michel Basquiat’s El Gran Espectaculo (The Nile) (1983) for $67 million, Francis Bacon’s Figure in Movement (1976) for $52 million, and Mark Rothko’s Untitled (Yellow, Orange, Yellow, Light Orange) (1955), all auctioned at Christie’s in New York.
China’s prestige in the global art market
China stood as the second-largest player in the global art market, boasting a 24% share by value—an increase of 2% from the previous year—and accounting for 11% of the lots sold. The country dominated the Contemporary segment, representing 39% of its value, thanks to several record-breaking sales and a surge in popularity for works by emerging Chinese artists.
Despite achieving a zenith of $2.6 billion in 2021, China’s Post-War and Contemporary art market witnessed a significant decline, plummeting by one-third to $1.7 billion in 2022. This downward trend persisted into 2023, albeit slower, with the market value decreasing by 6% to $1.6 billion.
Highly valued masterpieces
In this sector, artworks by renowned artists like Cui Ruzhouo, Wu Guanzhong, and Zao Wou-Ki fetched multimillion-dollar prices. Notably, Cui Ruzhouo’s “Rafting in Wind and Rain” (2019) was sold for $33.1 million at Yongle Auction Company in Beijing, and Wu Guanzhong’s “Harvest” (1998) achieved $11.1 million at China Guardian. These transactions underscore the enduring appeal and value of works by established artists within the Chinese market.
The UK’s art market resilience and challenge
The United Kingdom maintained its status as the third-largest market in the Post-War and Contemporary art sector, with its market share experiencing a slight decrease of 1% to 13%. After hitting a low of $737 million in 2020—the lowest in a decade—the UK market rebounded impressively in the following years.
Source: Arts Economics (2024) with data from Artory
By 2021 and 2022, it had regained its footing, reaching a valuation of $1 billion, effectively restoring its pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019. However, the resurgence was met with a setback in 2023 when the market value fell by 23% to $818 million, marking a 21% decrease from 2019 levels and, aside from 2020, the lowest point since 2010.
Noteworthy sales amidst market fluctuations
Despite the overall downturn, the London art market saw the sale of several high-value pieces in 2023. Among these were Gerhard Richter’s “Abstraktes Bild” (1986), which commanded a price of $29.1 million at Sotheby’s, and Jean-Michel Basquiat’s “Future Sciences Versus the Man” (1982), sold for $12.7 million at Christie’s. These sales highlight the continued demand for iconic works by esteemed artists, even in a less favourable market environment.
Rise of contemporary works
In the sphere of high-value art auctions, the year 2023 witnessed several noteworthy transactions, underscoring the dynamic nature of the market. Among these transactions, notable sales included the Cui Ruzho piece, which fetched $33.1 million, Cy Twombly’s Untitled (Bacchus 1st Version II), which sold for $20 million, and David Hockney’s Early Blossom, Woldgate, achieving $19.4 million.
These sales were conducted at Christie’s New York and represented a fraction of the 314 other works, each commanding prices exceeding $1 million. Yet, despite these significant figures, these contemporary pieces accounted for only around one-third of the lots sold above the million-dollar mark within the Post-War and Contemporary sectors.
The dominance of older post-war art
Older Post-War artworks continued to dominate the market in terms of value, representing 71% of sales in the $1 million-plus category. This dominance, however, saw a slight decline from the previous year, dropping by 4% as contemporary works began to assert more presence in the market.
Source: Arts Economics (2024) with data from Artory
The trend was also observed in the ultra-high-value segment of over $10 million, where the share of older Post-War art decreased to 81% from 88% in 2022, indicating a growing appetite among collectors for contemporary pieces.
Ascendance of contemporary works
The contemporary art sector has demonstrated remarkable vitality, with nearly 36,000 works created in the last two decades—by both emerging and established artists—going under the hammer in 2023. Over 300 of these pieces were sold for over $1 million, constituting 30% of the total value in the Post-War and Contemporary sectors.
This represents a significant increase from just a few years ago, with the share of contemporary works rising from 25% in 2019 and a mere 17% in 2017. The peak of this upward trajectory was reached in 2021, when contemporary works accounted for 34% of the sector’s value, buoyed in part by the sale of NFTs and other novel artworks fetching premium prices.
Are you looking for resilient, high-value artworks?
The global art market, particularly within the Post-War and Contemporary segments, reveals a complex interplay of trends, tastes, and economic forces. The resilience and the sustained interest in high-value artworks offer valuable insights for collectors, investors, and enthusiasts alike. As the landscape evolves, understanding these patterns becomes crucial for navigating the art market successfully. To discuss how Zurani Advisory can assist you, please email us at contact@zurani.com or telephone +971 58 593 5523.
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